The Signals
Signals are provided subject to the disclaimer and terms of service.
The signals are updated on the weekends, usually on Saturday morning.
The ETF signals only change once per week or month depending on the system.
The top date in each table indicates the date through which the system was last updated – it is the last trading day of the week.
The TSP 1 and 4 systems only make changes once per month (at most). If there is a trade, it is posted during the second weekend of the month. The TSP 3 system only makes changes twice per month and only posts new signals on weekends.
The systems trade at the close on the next market day after a new signal is posted. Thus, usually the trade happens at the Monday close (or at the Tuesday close if the market is closed on Monday).
The systems do not assume use of margin when trading, and they do not sell short.
For a list of the exchange traded funds that the ETF systems use, click here.
The posted results do not include the impact of taxes or commissions.
We suggest the use of a discount broker for the ETF systems to minimize the effect of commissions when trading, although some of the systems (such as the ETF 1 and ETF 2 systems) trade relatively infrequently making trading commissions an insignificant issue.
The ETF 1 Timing System v2
The system trades at most once per week. If there is a new trade it will be posted during the weekend update for execution during the next market day. System results assume trading at the close during the next market day. We first posted the ETF 1 timing system version 2 on the web on November 8, 2008.
Version 2 incorporates an exponential moving average system that forces the signal to move to TLT (long term treasury bond ETF) when underlying stock market conditions are unfavorable for strong returns. Results before that date are back tested.
The system’s results and the current signal are posted below. If there is an ETF switch, the top row’s “Position” ETF will be different from last weeks and will be highlighted in yellow:
The ETF 2 Timing System
The system trades at most once per week. If there is a new trade it will be posted during the weekend update for execution during the next market day. System results assume trading at the close during the next market day.
We first posted the ETF2 switching system on the web on March 9, 2008. We have followed the system in real-time since the beginning of December, 2007 Results before that date are back tested. The system’s results and the current signal are posted below. If there is an ETF switch, the top row’s “Position” ETF will be different from last weeks and will be highlighted in yellow:
The ETF 3 Timing System v2
The ETF3 version 2 system rotates between the various ETFs based on a momentum based model that tries to identify ETFs with lasting and powerful trends. The system differs from the ETF1 and ETF2 systems in that it always holds two of the ETFs – this broadens the holdings of the system and provides more diversification. This increased diversification does tend to reduce overall returns somewhat compared the the other two systems.
The system trades weekly – at most – updates are posted on the weekend. The system’s new signals are for trading on the next market day, usually Monday. The returns assume trading at the market close on the day after a signal is first posted. No margin is used when trading. The system is not a simple combination of the ETF1 and ETF2 systems – it was developed along similar but not identical lines. It can hold the top ETFs in the other two systems, but does not necessarily do so.
We first posted the ETF 3 timing system version 2 on the web on November 8, 2008. Version 2 incorporates an exponential moving average system that forces the signal to move to TLT (long term treasury bond ETF) when underlying stock market conditions are unfavorable for strong returns. Results before that date are back tested. The system’s results and the current signal are posted below. If there is an ETF switch, the top row’s “Position” ETF will be different from last weeks and will be highlighted in yellow:
ETF 4 Timing System
This system is designed for trading using the same method as the TSP 3 timing system – but it uses the ETF symbol EFA and Cash (or money market) as the two trading vehicles it switches between.
How the ETF 4 System Works
The ETF 4 system switches between the ETF with the symbol EFA and Cash based on the time of the month. The system trades weekly – at most – updates are posted on the weekend. The system’s new signals are for trading on the next market day, usually Monday.
The returns assume trading at the market close on the day after a signal is first posted. No margin is used when trading. The system was first posted on our site on April 17, 2008 and was developed during February-March 2008.
The earlier history for the ETF 4 Timing Systems is here.
If there is a new signal, the top line at in the Position column will be highlighted in yellow.
ETF 5 Timing System
This page presents the trade results graph and trade table of the ETF5 Timing System. This system is designed for trading using the same ETFs as the ETF systems 1, 2, and 3.
How the ETF 5 System Works
The ETF 5 system switches between the various ETFs based on a momentum based model that tries to identify ETFs with lasting and powerful trends. The system trades weekly – at most – updates are posted on the weekend.
The system’s new signals are for trading on the next market day, usually Monday. The returns assume trading at the market close on the day after a signal is first posted. No margin is used when trading. The system uses a variation of the method used for the ETF, ETF 2 and ETF 3 systems.
The system was first posted on our site on April 25, 2008 and was developed during February-March 2008.
If there is a new signal, the top line at in the Position column will be highlighted in yellow.
ETF 6 Timing System
This page presents the trade results graph and trade table of the ETF 6 Timing System. The ETF 6 System uses more ETFs than the earlier systems, and always holds three ETFs.
How the ETF 6 System Works
The ETF 6 system switches between the various ETFs based on a momentum based model that tries to identify ETFs with lasting and powerful trends. The system trades weekly – at most – updates are posted on the weekend. The system’s new signals are for trading on the next market day, usually Monday. The returns assume trading at the market close on the day after a signal is first posted. No margin is used when trading. The system uses a significant variation of the method used for the ETF1 , ETF 2, ETF 3 and ETF 5 systems.
The system was first posted on our site on April 24, 2008 and was developed during February-March 2008.
The earlier history for the ETF 6 Timing System is here.
If there is a new signal, the top line at in the Position column will be highlighted in yellow.
ETF 7 Timing System v2
This section presents the trade results graph and trade table of the ETF 7 Timing System. The ETF 7 System always holds one ETF.
How the ETF 7 System v2 Works
The ETF 7 system switches between the various ETFs based on a momentum based model that tries to identify ETFs with lasting and powerful trends. The system trades weekly – at most – updates are posted on the weekend. The system’s new signals are for trading on the next market day, usually Monday. The returns assume trading at the market close on the day after a signal is first posted. No margin is used when trading. The system uses a significant variation of the method used for the ETF 1, ETF 2, ETF 3, ETF5 and ETF 6 systems.
We first posted the current release of ETF 7 timing system version 2 on the web on November 24, 2008. Version 2 incorporates an exponential moving average system that forces the signal to move to TLT (long term treasury bond ETF) when underlying stock market conditions are unfavorable for strong returns. Results before that date are back tested.
If there is a new signal, the top line at in the Position column will be highlighted in yellow.
ETF 11 Timing System v2
The ETF 11 Timing signals only change once per week (at most). The weekly signals are updated usually on Saturday. If you check on Sunday evening or Monday morning, you will see if there is a switch to be made that week. The top date in each table indicates through what date the system was last updated – it will usually be the last trading day of the week. The ETF trade tables assume trading at the market close on the day after a switch. Thus, usually the trade happens on Monday.
The systems do not assume use of margin when trading. The system’s results and the current signal are posted in the table on the right. If there is an ETF switch, the top row’s “Position” ETF will be different from last weeks and will be highlighted in yellow.
When market conditions are favorable, the ETF 11 system holds three or four ETFs – when market conditions are generally unfavorable for high returns, the system switches to the ETF TLT. TLT seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market. Prior to 2004, the results assume trading stock symbol ASA in place of the ETF GLD which was not available before then. For a list of the exchange traded funds that this system switches between, click here.
The results do not include impact of commissions. We suggest the use of a discount broker to minimize the effect of commissions when trading. The system trades at most once per week. If there is a new trade it will be posted during the weekend update for execution during the next market day. System results assume trading at the close during the next market day.
We first posted the ETF11 switching system on the web on November 26, 2008. Results before that date are back tested.
ETF 12 Timing System v2
The ETF signals only change once per week (at most). The weekly signals are updated usually on Saturday. If you check on Sunday evening or Monday morning, you will see if there is a switch to be made that week. The top date in each table indicates through what date the system was last updated – it will usually be the last trading day of the week.
The ETF trade tables assume trading at the market close on the day after a switch. Thus, usually the trade happens on Monday. The systems do not assume use of margin when trading. The system’s results and the current signal are posted in the table on the right. If there is an ETF switch, the top row’s “Position” ETF will be different from last weeks and will be highlighted in yellow.
When market conditions are favorable, the ETF 12 system holds three ETFs – when market conditions are generally unfavorable for high returns, the system switches to the ETF TLT. TLT seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market.
Prior to 2004, the results assume trading stock symbol ASA in place of the ETF GLD which was not available before then. For a list of the exchange traded funds that this system switches between, click here. The results do not include impact of commissions. We suggest the use of a discount broker to minimize the effect of commissions when trading. Earlier history for the ETF 12 timing and rotation system is here.
System results assume trading at the close during the next market day.
We first posted the ETF12 switching system on the web on October 26, 2008. Results before that date are back tested.
The TSP Timing System
We first posted the TSP timing system on the web on March 9, 2008. We have followed the system in real-time since the beginning of December, 2007 Results before that date are back tested. The system’s results and the current signal are posted below: 
TSP Timing Graph: the graph above provides a comparison of the switching system results against holding each of the three funds in equal amounts since the beginning of the system.
More information about the TSP Timing System is here.
The TSP 3 Timing System
The TSP 3 system switches between two of the available TSP funds – the I Fund (international equities) and the F Fund (US bonds). Version 2 of the system was first posted on November 4, 2008. Results before that date are backtested. Version 2 incorporates a new trigger which prevents the system from moving from the F Fund when general market conditions are weak.
The TSP 3 Timing System signals new trades only on the weekend - trades are executed on the first trading day after the weekend (usually Monday), with the second day (usually Tuesday) being the first day the new trade positions begin to impact the trade returns.
This system is updated weekly and makes no more than 2 switches per month to conform to the TSP trading restriction rules.
TSP 3 Timing System Graph: the graph above presents the system’s back tested and real time results compared to buying 50% of each fund at the beginning of the period and holding until the end of the period.