TSP 3 Timing System

Signals are provided subject to the disclaimer and terms of service.

This page presents the trade results graph and trade table of the TSP Timing System 3. This system is designed for use by federal employees to allocate funds within the Thrift Savings Plan, available to federal employees and military members.

How the TSP 3 System Works

The TSP 3 system switches between two of the available TSP funds - the I Fund (international equities) and the F Fund (US bonds).

It has been constructed based on the observation that the stock markets, both domestic and international, tends to rise near the end of each calendar month and that significant drops, if any, seem to occur soon after the beginning of the month.

The system takes advantage of these cyclical trends based on monthly periods and mechanically switches out of stocks soon after the beginning of each month and back into equities around the middle of the month.

There are a number of theories as to why monthly cycle systems such as this have worked in the past and why they may continue to be successful. Chief among these is the fact that institutional investors, including large pension funds, tend to have large sums that they must invest near the end of each calendar month. This influx of cash may be enough to drive prices up with these monthly cycles being the result.

This system was first published on the web on April 9, 2008, and was developed by us into its current form in February, 2008.

The primary difference between this system and the TSP2 timing system is that the TSP 3 Timing System signals new trades only on the weekend - trades are executed on the first trading day after the weekend (usually Monday), with the second day (usually Tuesday) being the first day the new trade positions begin to impact the trade returns.

This system is updated weekly and makes 2 switches per month to conform to the TSP trading frequency restriction rules.

The graph below presents the system's back tested and real time results compared to buying 50% of each fund at the beginning of the period and holding until the end of the period.

TSP 3 Timing System Graph

To ensure uninterrupted access to this and all our ETF and TSP timing signals, please join now.