Site News
May 15, 2008
Since the last update, we have removed several of the free systems - ETF System 6, for example, is now available only to members.
We have also reverted to the old look of the site in the free area - but with somewhat wider useable area allowing for text to flow around the graphics in some cases.
April 24, 2008
This week we introduced a couple of more ETF systems - the ETF systems 5 and 6. System 6 is especially noteworthy because it uses about 14 additional ETFs - a broader cross section of the domestic and international market. It also holds three ETFs at a time. Both systems only trade once a week and are updated on the weekend for trading on the next market day (usually Monday.) For now, they are in the free timing signal area.
We also changed the look of the free area of the site. We plan to convert the member area to the new look within the next few days.
April 17, 2008
Since the last update on this page, we have introduced a number of ETF and TSP systems. When systems are introduced, they are usually available for free for some time. However, they are also visible on the member page (and, of course, will remain so even after they are no longer free systems.)
The free signal page lists all the systems available for free.
March 19, 2008
We corrected some of the older historical price data that had some small errors in the two ETF systems. The historical returns increased somewhat, but the recent and current trades were unchanged. The main effect was to account for dividends from QQQQ and a couple of the other ETFs.
March 9, 2008
ETF and TSP switching systems:
We are pleased to introduce our Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) switching systems. As of today, these systems are available to existing members through a link available near the top of the member's area signal page.
The systems trade weekly (at most) with new signals (if any) posted during the weekend update. System returns are measured as of the market close on the trade day - no margin is used.
On the same page, we are also including our Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) switching system. The TSP is available for most federal employees and military members. The TSP system only switches once per month (at most). If there is a switch, it is posted during the second weekend of the month for trading on the next market day.
We will be adding more detailed information about these systems on the new signal page within the next few days.
There is no additional charge for current members for access to these systems.
January 23, 2008
As of tonight's update, some of our systems are incorporating a stop loss component. These systems move to "Cash" when the current trade return drops to -4.6% or below. The systems move to cash at the next market open or close depending on when the system normally trades.
As we have stated in the FAQ, we certainly advocate including a stop loss when trading. We would put a stop at least 5% below the entry price - how much more than 5% depends on how risk-averse your particular trading style is. Somewhere between 5% and 8% would usually be appropriate to avoid large losses while allowing for normal market fluctuations.
Those systems that include the new stop loss have a notice concerning this change listed along with the description of the system on the signal page. As of today, these systems show the impact of applying the stop-loss as back tested to the beginning of each system. Generally, the stop-loss component does not dramatically change the results of most of the systems since most of the recent market volatility has resulted in large one or two day losses which the systems, trading at the next day open or close, cannot avoid.
Because we measure the return at the next day's open or close, you can probably do better by placing stops that would trigger at intra-day prices.
January 21, 2008
We changed the featured system to System 2 and 4. System 2 and4 has held up better under the current weak market conditions, and we believe it is worthy of consideration for inclusion as a component of a diversified trading strategy.
January 12, 2008
We discovered an error in the price data for the "At Least 3 of 2-3-4-5" system - the error affected the calculation of trade returns for trades prior to 9/27/2007. As of today, the correct table is being shown. Overall system return was impacted but only slightly.
December 29, 2007
We adjusted the return of the "At Least 3 of 2-3-4-5" system to reflect the recent (December 20) dividend paid for QLD while the system was "Long". We have not adjusted the systems that trade QQQQ - the QQQQ dividend was less than one cent, so the adjusted results would not be significantly different.
December 9, 2007
We changed the featured system to System 3. System 3 has recovered faster than most of the other systems from the recent market weakness, and we believe it is worthy of consideration for inclusion in a diversified trading strategy.
We also moved a couple of the signals to a new page in the member area - other signals. These are systems we update but do not consider as suitable for trading.
November 21, 2007
Yesterday, "System 2 and 3" was posted with an error - since System 2 remained in cash, "System 2 and 3" also remained in cash, but an error in a formula caused it to show a move to "Long". Thanks to several members for catching the mistake - it has been corrected now - the trade table reflects the proper signal.
October 31, 2007
Today, we added a page with case studies showing results of trading two of our signals using RYDEX mutual funds (specifically RYVYX). Also, upgrades to unlimited time access memberships are now available for 12 and 24 month members. These upgrades will only be available for a limited time.
September 29, 2007
Today, we introduced a new composite system created entirely from the existing systems 2, 3, 4, and 5. This system goes long whenever at least three of those systems are long and stays in cash whenever 2 or fewer of those systems are in cash. System results and daily signals are available on the main signal page in the member area.
The system table reflects trading QLD at the open. QLD attempts to achieve twice the return of QQQQ on a daily basis. Thus, the system table is not calculated using margin - leveraged trading results are automatically built in to QLD. Leveraging QLD with margin could increase returns even more (at the expense of increased volatility.)
We are considering switching the system results tables for most or all of the systems to QLD instead of QQQQ. QLD can be traded in accounts that are not eligible to use margin. Thus, QLD can be used in a wider variety of situations.
Also, we have tested this system trading at the close using the S Fund that is available to federal employees in the Thrift Savings Plan.
The objective of the S Fund is to match the performance of the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion (DJW 4500) Index, a broad market index made up of stocks of U.S. companies not included in the S&P 500 Index.
AAs of today, the system has performed quite well trading at next-day end of day using the S Fund. It has returned over 30% from July 2006 to the end of September 2007.
September 20,2007
Today, we announced through the email visitor list that starting on Monday, the 24th of September, we will be suspending sales as part of our decision to place a cap on member growth. When sales resume, we will only accept a few members every couple of months and charge much higher prices to join. We expect the price to be in the range of $200 per quarter./p>
The change in price will not affect current members. All current members will be offered the chance to renew (when or if their subscription expires) at their original price as long as they remain a member.
WWe also changed our refund policy to a 30-day unconditional satisfaction guarantee. This does not affect the refund policy in effect for current members - whatever the policy was at the time a member joined is what applies to that member.
September 7, 2007
Changed Signal Area Look and Added Quick View
We changed the signal area to match the new look to the public area of the site. We also added the quick view page. This page allows members to scan for changes in the signals - it shows only the next day's positions and the top line of the signal results tables.
TThe Quick View page also is useful to those who have slow internet connections - the page is only a tenth of the size of the main signal page.
August 11, 2007
Changes to the Site and a New Featured System Selected
This week we have updated the look of the site.
We've also changed the featured system to the Composite System 2 and 3. There is no doubt that in the recent volatile market environment, this composite system has been performing better than System 2 alone. And, System 2 and 3 has generally had a smoother equity curve over the period we have been following it. As the page describing this composite system says, backtesting to the early 90's shows very good performance throughout the period.
We intend to feature a system that appears to be working well - giving one guidepost to help members decide how to use the various signals provided. Of course, the idea of having multiple systems is to provide a starting basis for diversifying your timing approaches.
WeWe can't make individual recommendations as to how to use the systems, but we would never rely only on one system as a basis for timing - diversification in timing approaches as well as in investment strategies is the surest way to improve returns while minimizing risk.