Frequently Asked Questions

Are memberships available to your stock market and Thrift Savings Plan timing signals?

Use the Join Now link at the top of the page to become a member. When memberships are not available, that link will take you to an email signup form if you wish to be notified during the next period of availability.

Where are the historical annual returns posted?

The historical annual returns are available on this page.

When are the signals updated?

Signals and system results are updated once per week usually on Saturday morning, but the update can be delayed until as late as Sunday if the data necessary to update the signals is not available until then (this happens only rarely).

Do I have to trade at the Monday close?

Our testing shows that similar results can be obtained using these signals by trading at the market open on Tuesday or trading mid to late morning on Monday. Using the discount broker FOLIOfn, trading in mid-morning on Monday can be easily done with orders place on the weekend using their “window” trade feature.

When do the systems trade? How do you calculate the week to week results? Why does the system report a gain for the week when the new trade is down?

The systems trade at the close of the first trading day of the week (usually Monday). This means that when a system begins a new trade, the old trade is closed out at the Monday close and the new one is entered at the Monday close.

The system results report what is calculated for the system performance from Friday to Friday close. This means that since the trades are Monday to Monday close and the system results are calculated Friday to Friday close, the reported results are not the same as the individual trade results.

The reported results show the cumulative system performance.

The most commen question we get is a concern that the posted results don’t match the trade result (often the question comes with a calcuation of a particular trade.) The problem with this approach is that many weeks the system results include the performance of two trades (at least for the frequently trading systems such as ETF 14). The system results include the performance of the old trade up until Monday’s close as well as the performance of the new trade from Monday’s close to Friday’s close.

Since we calculate the returns and post the signals on the weekend, the system returns are calculated on a week to week basis – Friday close to Friday close. Thus, on a week where there has been a new trade, the weekend update takes into account what the old trade did on the Monday, and what the new trade did on Monday close to Friday close.

This explains why it is possible that the system will show a gain for the week even though the new trade, as of the Friday close, is down. Of course, the converse is sometimes true – the system will show a loss for the week even though the new trade is up for the week.

To summarize – the system results we post take into account the performance of the old trade on the Monday when a new trade is entered. The system results show week-to-week results calculated Friday-to-Friday even though the trades are closed and entered on Monday at the close.

Do I have to install any software to use these systems?

No! Each time one of our systems has a new signal, we post them on the web. You don’t have to use any software to use these systems – all you need is access to a web browser to view the signals on the web.

Do your systems include stop-loss components, and do you advocate placing stops when trading?

Most of our systems automatically move to more conservative positions when the overall market conditions deteriorate. However, you should place stops on your positions based on your tolerance for risk and overall trading style.

Do you offer a free trial period?

We don’t offer a free trial period. However, new members enjoy a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee.

Do the signal returns reported reflect commissions, taxes or other expenses?

The trade returns for the signals that trade at the market open do not reflect commissions or taxes, nor do they include interest earned while in cash. We recommend using a discount broker to minimize the impact of brokers’ commissions on your trading results.

The only difference between the signals that trade at the close versus those that trade at the open (for these purposes) is the signals that trade at the close use the adjusted closing price which takes into account dividends.

How are the system cumulative return columns calculated – if the current trade is up 12%, for example, and the cumulative return column began the trade at 400%, why has the cumulative return column gone up to more than 412%?

The percentage return “Since Jun 2004″, for example, is a cumulative percentage return since Jun 2004. So, 12% on top of the 400% amounts to more than 400+12.If an original $10,000 investment has grown to $50,000, that’s an increase of 400% – remember that doubling $10,000 to $20,000 is a 100% increase. A 12% increase on $50,000 is $6000 making the total $56,000. $56,000 is a return of 460%, not 412%, on the original $10,000. Therefore, the “System Since…” column shows a return of 460%.

Which of the timing system returns are real time, and which are back tested?

Associated with each signal table is a paragraph describing when the signal was first posted on our site.

What are the ETF’s that the ETF systems trade?

For a list of the exchange traded funds that the systems switch between, click here.

What is TSP?

The TSP is the Thrift Savings Plan, similar to a 401K plan. It is available to U.S. federal employees and military members.

How do I cancel automatic rebilling?

We don’t offer subscriptions with recurring billing.

Why try to time the stock market?

Practically everyone who invests uses a timing system. Many people just don’t realize it. Even the popular “buy and hold” strategy is a timing system — investors buy when they have the money, and sell when they need the money (or when they get too nervous and sell, such as during a market decline.) Worse yet, the buy and hold strategy is based on timing that is usually unrelated to any attempt to maximize profit and minimize risk!

Market timing could be defined as the act of making buy and sell decisions based on a defined criteria. The criteria could range from market indicators such as volume traded or price trends, to general economic indicators like the prime lending rate or the latest inflation or unemployment numbers.

Many investors’ (including those following buy and hold) timing attempts fail because they allow emotions to override intellect. People tend to buy high when enthusiasm for a stock or the market is at its greatest, and sell low when the market drops and psychological depression sets in and enthusiasm wanes. This even happens to those pundits who follow the market news as it “breaks” each day!

Systematic timing strategies attempt to achieve greater returns than buy and hold, and reduce the size of confidence-shaking drawdowns by applying mathematical and statistical analysis to help predict when to buy and sell. The art is in knowing what criteria or indicators to use, and how to use them! Of course, nobody can predict the market with certainty. However, a well designed and tested market timing system can beat a traditional buy and hold strategy.

Should I diversify my trading approaches?

We strongly believe that all investors should map out a diversified investment strategy for their portfolio. What does that mean? Simply stated, don’t place all your eggs in the same basket! In other words, invest your funds in several places and ways to spread your risk.

There are some rules of thumb that we subscribe to. First, we recommend that you don’t put more than half of the investment assets that you are willing to apply to speculative trading strategies in any one strategy. Many investors will want to keep much less than half in a single strategy. Using several timing strategies will help spread your risk.

Second, don’t invest in a timing strategy if you will need your money in the short term (the next year or so).

Finally, be prepared to stick with it. Consistency in investing takes emotional fortitude, but can pay huge dividends. Remember, most investors buy high and sell low. Market timing takes those emotional decisions out of play, and helps you maximize your returns over time. The rewards can be tremendous but sometimes it takes patience and perseverance!

Customer Information

If you are a customer (having purchased a membership when they were available) and are having a problem accessing your purchase, please visit our support page at the following link: Customer Support.